Multiple Linear Regression Method for Thermal Maturity Prediction Based On Well Logs

Rahmat Catur Wibowo; Muh Sarkowi; Ordas Dewanto; Bagus S Mulyatno; Ilham Dani

doi:10.25299/jgeet.2024.9.2.10270

Authors

Rahmat Catur Wibowo Geophysics Engineering Universitas Lampung, Sumantri Bojonegoro Street No.1 Bandar Lampung City, Lampung, Indonesia
Muh Sarkowi Geophysics Engineering Universitas Lampung, Sumantri Bojonegoro Street No.1 Bandar Lampung City, Lampung, Indonesia
Ordas Dewanto Geophysics Engineering Universitas Lampung, Sumantri Bojonegoro Street No.1 Bandar Lampung City, Lampung, Indonesia
Bagus S Mulyatno Geophysics Engineering Universitas Lampung, Sumantri Bojonegoro Street No.1 Bandar Lampung City, Lampung, Indonesia.
Ilham Dani Geophysics Engineering Universitas Lampung, Sumantri Bojonegoro Street No.1 Bandar Lampung City, Lampung, Indonesia.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25299/jgeet.2024.9.2.10270

Keywords:

Multiple linear regression, well logs, vitrinite reflectance, prediction, thermal maturity

Abstract

Accurate estimation of thermal maturity is essential in characterizing a source rock, especially using vitrinite reflectance (Ro). The limitations of laboratory data related to the high cost of analysis require a special reliable method to measure the Ro value indirectly in the source rock layer. The proposed method is a continuous prediction of the value of Ro from well logs data using the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) technique in the Palembang Sub-Basin, South Sumatra Basin. A total of 25 Ro data from 2 wells (RCW-01 and RCW-02) are available from the laboratory's core data analysis results. The Ro data varies from 0.39% to 0.76%, with an average of 0.54%. Prediction of the value of Ro is carried out using the MLR method, which is then carried out training and validation for continuous Ro. The training was carried out using one well (RCW-01) at 2287-3027 m and testing at other intervals (1848-2286 m). The results of the training show an estimation accuracy of R² 0.99, while the test results produce R² 0.81. The MLR formula in the RCW-01 well was then applied to the RCW-02 well for the validation test phase. The well RCW-02 produces a good correlation estimate equal to R² 0.85. Prediction of the value of Ro using the MLR method can be used to evaluate the source rock layer of a sedimentary basin in the form of a continuous interval.

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